Aircraft and satellite observations reveal historical gap between top-down and bottom-up CO2 emissions from Canadian oil sands.

Measurement-based estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from complex industrial operations are challenging to obtain, but serve as an important, independent check on inventory-reported emissions. Such top-down estimates, while important for oil and gas (O&G) emissions globally, are particularly relevant for Canadian oil sands (OS) operations, which represent the largest O&G contributor to national GHG emissions. We present a multifaceted top-down approach for estimating CO2 emissions that combines aircraft-measured CO2/NOx emission ratios (ERs) with inventory and satellite-derived NOx emissions from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and apply it to the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in Alberta, Canada. Historical CO2 emissions were reconstructed for the surface mining region, and average top-down estimates were found to be >65% higher than facility-reported, bottom-up estimates from 2005 to 2020. Higher top-down vs. bottom-up emissions estimates were also consistently obtained for individual surface mining and in situ extraction facilities, which represent a growing category of energy-intensive OS operations. Although the magnitudes of the measured discrepancies vary between facilities, they combine such that the observed reporting gap for total AOSR emissions is ≥(31 ± 8) Mt for each of the last 3 years (2018-2020). This potential underestimation is large and broadly highlights the importance of continued review and refinement of bottom-up estimation methodologies and inventories. The ER method herein offers a powerful approach for upscaling measured facility-level or regional fossil fuel CO2 emissions by taking advantage of satellite remote sensing observations.

Fugitive Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Tailings Pond in the Oil Sands Region of Alberta.

Tailings ponds in the oil sands (OS) region in Alberta, Canada, have been associated with fugitive emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other pollutants to the atmosphere. However, the contribution of tailings ponds to the total fugitive emissions of VOCs from OS operations remains uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, a field study was conducted in the summer of 2017 at Suncor's Pond 2/3 to estimate emissions of a suite of pollutants including 68 VOCs using a combination of micrometeorological methods and measurements from a flux tower. The results indicate that in 2017, Pond 2/3 was an emission source of 3322 ± 727 tons of VOCs including alkanes, aromatics, and oxygenated and sulfur-containing organics. While the total VOC emissions were approximately a factor of 2 higher than those reported by Suncor, the individual VOC species emissions varied by up to a factor of 12. A chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model was used to estimate the contribution of the tailings pond to VOC pollution events in a nearby First Nations and Metis community in Fort McKay. CMB results indicate that Suncor Pond 2/3 contributed up to 57% to the total mass of VOCs measured at Fort McKay, reinforcing the importance of accurate VOC emission estimation methods for tailings ponds.

Improving Insights on Air Pollutant Mixtures and Their Origins by Enhancing Local Monitoring in an Area of Intensive Resource Development.

An "event-based" approach to characterize complex air pollutant mixtures was applied in the Oil Sands region of northern Alberta, Canada. This approach was developed to better-inform source characterization and attribution of the air pollution in the Indigenous community of Fort McKay, within the context of the lived experience of residents. Principal component analysis was used to identify the characteristics of primary pollutant mixtures, which were related to hydrocarbon emissions, fossil fuel combustion, dust, and oxidized and reduced sulfur compounds. Concentration distributions of indicator compounds were used to isolate sustained air pollution "events". Diesel-powered vehicles operating in the mines were found to be an important source during NOx events. Industry-specific volatile organic compound (VOC) profiles were used in a chemical mass balance model for source apportionment, which revealed that nearby oil sands operations contribute to 86% of the total mass of nine VOC species (2-methylpentane, hexane, heptane, octane, benzene, toluene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, and ethylbenzene) during VOC events. Analyses of the frequency distribution of air pollution events indicate that Fort McKay is regularly impacted by multiple mixtures simultaneously, underscoring the limitations of an exceedance-based approach relying on a small number of air quality standards as the only tool to assess risk.

Differences between measured and reported volatile organic compound emissions from oil sands facilities in Alberta, Canada.

Large-scale oil production from oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada has raised concerns about environmental impacts, such as the magnitude of air pollution emissions. This paper reports compound emission rates (E) for 69-89 nonbiogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for each of four surface mining facilities, determined with a top-down approach using aircraft measurements in the summer of 2013. The aggregate emission rate (aE) of the nonbiogenic VOCs ranged from 50 ± 14 to 70 ± 22 t/d depending on the facility. In comparison, equivalent VOC emission rates reported to the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) using accepted estimation methods were lower than the aE values by factors of 2.0 ± 0.6, 3.1 ± 1.1, 4.5 ± 1.5, and 4.1 ± 1.6 for the four facilities, indicating underestimation in the reported VOC emissions. For 11 of the combined 93 VOC species reported by all four facilities, the reported emission rate and E were similar; but for the other 82 species, the reported emission rate was lower than E The median ratio of E to that reported for all species by a facility ranged from 4.5 to 375 depending on the facility. Moreover, between 9 and 53 VOCs, for which there are existing reporting requirements to the NPRI, were not included in the facility emission reports. The comparisons between the emission reports and measurement-based emission rates indicate that improvements to VOC emission estimation methods would enhance the accuracy and completeness of emission estimates and their applicability to environmental impact assessments of oil sands developments.

Multiple-scattering lidar retrieval method: tests on Monte Carlo simulations and comparisons with in situ measurements.

A multiple-field-of-view (MFOV) lidar measurement and solution technique has been developed to exploit the retrievable particle extinction and size information contained in the multiple-scattering contributions to aerosol lidar returns. We describe the proposed solution algorithm. The primary retrieved parameters are the extinction coefficient at the lidar wavelength and the effective particle diameter from which secondary products such as the extinction at other wavelengths and the liquid-water content (LWC) of liquid-phase clouds can be derived. The solutions are compared with true values in a series of Monte Carlo simulations and with in-cloud measurements. Good agreement is obtained for the simulations. For the field experiment, the retrieved effective droplet diameter and LWC for the available seven cases studied are on average 15% and 35% (worst case) smaller than the measured data, respectively. In the latter case, the analysis shows that the differences cannot be attributed solely to lidar inversion errors. Despite the limited penetration depth (150-300 m) of the lidar pulses, the results of the studied cases indicate that the retrieved lidar solutions remain statistically representative of measurements performed over the full cloud extent. Long-term MFOV lidar monitoring could thus become a practical and economical option for cloud statistical studies but more experimentation on more varied cloud conditions, especially for LWC, is still needed.